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Time Off

Wednesday, April 8th, 2020

https://www.flickr.com/photos/marumeganechan/14256301182/

Hi All,

Nothing to do with the Coronavirus, but I decided to take some time off.

I’ve been writing Mapping Company Success since March 2, 2006, just a tad over 14 years.

Thats a long time and I need a break.

Take care, stay safe and I see you soon—probably.

Image credit: Taichiro Ueki

Covid-19

Monday, April 6th, 2020

https://www.flickr.com/photos/182229932@N07/49652428106/I received the following email from a longtime reader.

Hey Miki, I read a lot of conflicting information about Covid-19 and I was wondering if you or your contacts had anything to add, whether good or bad.

I don’t feel qualified to comment much, so I reached out to see what more knowledgeable people I know had to say.

One detailed response I thought worth sharing accurately reflects my gut reaction, which was based on nothing more than my growing cynicism.

His, on the other hand, are based on an in depth knowledge of current events, finance and the economy.

The author is a senior guy working on Wall Street. It’s anonymous because he would probably be fired, since his company is close to the  powers-that-be, and his opinion and comments are at variance with what they are saying.

I am significantly less optimistic than most people I speak with. However, I believe that the numbers we’re receiving are highly skewed by low testing numbers.

Despite having 3+ months to prepare, we’re caught completely unprepared. Our government has bungled the response in more ways than I can mention. I have 2 siblings in Miami who are health workers, one a surgeon who happens to be professor of surgery and chief surgeon. They are now dressing in plastic bags and going into surgery with bandanas covering their faces instead of masks. It seems to be the same in LA and SF.

The US has about 50 million people without access to healthcare, about 11 million of which are undocumented immigrants. These represent a hidden and significant risk factor that is largely ignored by media and most people in discussing the problem. The US is the only OECD country with this risk factor in such significant numbers. We also do not have a well-functioning primary health system. It means that we essentially do not know how disease is developing in the populace and are unable to devise strong strategies for addressing a pandemic like this (not to mention that the president fired the pandemic response team in 2018).

In China it took 3-4 months to stop the pandemic, and based on recent news past patients are being reinfected. It means that we will be out of this at earliest in another 2-3 months.

There is a significant risk for a 1918 Spanish Flu situation where there was a first wave that was somewhat virulent, but nowhere close to the second wave that came the following autumn that killed up to 6% of the world population. It lasted from January 1918 until December 1920, so this can last for more time than we’re expecting and be worse than we’re now seeing.

However, if we look at the numbers from Germany, which is the only nation that is attempting to test major portions of the population, the mortality rates are well below what we’re seeing elsewhere. This is very hopeful, especially when other numbers seem so bleak.

In China there are at least 5 different strains, and in Iceland they have identified up to 40. This means that it is mutating in different directions. The US response, which is more akin to that taking place in Kenya and Equador than most of the OECD, may have both a positive and negative consequence. It may create herd immunity, while also having a significantly higher mortality rate prior to this happening.

So, to stop my rambling, here are my recommendations:

    • be conservative in all ways with regard to hand washing, mask wearing, having outside vs. inside footwear, disinfecting doorknobs/light switches, etc.,
    • plan for longer time frames of sequestration than the authorities advocate,
    • avoid contact with health workers of all types, unless you suspect serious COVID symptoms,
    • stock food that lasts, especially frozen vegetables, etc., that give your immune system the ability to function at optimum capacity.

Beyond these immediate health issues, there is a probability for recession/depression, especially considering that the US is consumer driven economy (vs. export or manufacturing driven). Consumers are losing jobs wholesale, and while the Fed is printing money like never before, monetary policies will have limited success considering the record low interest rate. In addition, we still have not addressed the “toxic sludge” from the last recession.

Image credit: EpicTop10.com

Wise Words for April Fool’s Day 2020

Wednesday, April 1st, 2020

In honor of April Fool’s Day I thought I’d share a gem from Henry David Thoreau.

Any fool can make a rule, and any fool will mind it.

The goal, of course, is to avoid, or at least limit, the time you spend as either the lead fool or the follower fool.

Image credit: Wikipedia

Leadership by What Example

Tuesday, March 24th, 2020

This is the post that I mentioned yesterday. As Wally points out so elegantly “do as I say and not as I do” doesn’t work anymore — if it ever did. (BTW, you might find this post on leadership as a profession of interest.)

“There is no leadership without leadership by example.” ~ Captain James Westley Ayers, USMC

Captain Ayers was right. There is no leadership without leadership by example. What he didn’t say is that example can be good or bad. You don’t get any choice about whether you lead by example, only about the kind of example you set.

Most writing about leadership by example assumes a good example. If you work hard, the people on your team will work hard, too. If you’re honest, they will be, too. It’s the way it is. It’s human nature.

Human nature has a baked-in capacity and desire for hierarchy. That’s why you must be careful. It’s easy to set a bad example.

People Are Watching

If you’re the person responsible for the performance of a group, the other members watch you. That’s because you have some power over them. It may not be much, but it’s there. They watch what you do as a guide to what they should do.

Everyone I know who’s been promoted in large organizations has some version of the same story. A leader does something without much thinking about it and people take it as a guide to behavior. The story I like best is the one told by Linda Hill about when she was promoted to President of General Dynamics.

She went shopping for a new suit to celebrate her promotion. The salesperson sold her a scarf with the suit and showed her an interesting way to tie the scarf. She wore the suit and the scarf, tied in that special way, her first day on the job. What happened, in Ms. Hill’s own words.

“And then I came back to work the next day and I ran into no fewer than a dozen women in the organization who have on scarves tied exactly like mine.”

Another friend tells about his first day on the job as plant manager. He made several casual comments about how they could move equipment to be more effective. The next day, when he went to the plant, he found that all his “ideas” had been implemented overnight.

Then, there was the friend who forgot to get his usual morning coffee on the way to the office on his first day in a new position. When he realized what he’d done, he said out loud to himself, in his office, “God, I wish I had some coffee.” Within minutes, three cups of coffee arrived.

Be careful what you do and what you say. People are watching.

Be Careful What You Praise

Praise is a power tool. You use it so that people will do things or keep doing things that you want them to do. We love praise. Just remember, people are listening.

You will get more of what you praise. If you praise great ideas, you will get more of them. If you praise courage, people are likely to be more courageous. But if you praise people who work long hours. other people will start putting in more time. If you praise people who answer email in the middle of the night, folks will start sleeping with their phone by the bed.

How Do You Act When Things Don’t Go Your Way?

Some things will not work the way you’d hoped. Some news will be bad news. How you act tells your team members some important things.

If you receive bad news gracefully and take it as information, people will be more likely to bring it. Even more, if you thank them for letting you know. People don’t mind being the messenger that gets praised for doing a good deed. They don’t want to be the messenger who gets killed.

When you’re interrupted it’s another opportunity to set a good example. Treat the people who interrupt you with respect and courtesy. Then, if the interruption is inappropriate, tell them why.

What You Tolerate, You Condone

It’s hard to do, but you need to address behavior or performance that violates your standards or values.

Mark Deterding tells a story from early in his career. Mark was in his mid-twenties, when he was transferred and promoted to plant manager. During his first few meetings, he was struck by the amount of swearing by the seasoned veterans on his team.

He decided he would just model the right way and his team members would change. But it didn’t work that way. They went right on swearing. Here’s the lesson Mark said he learned.

“It’s not enough to just model the way. It’s just as important to clearly and immediately address any issues that violate the values of the organization. When you allow unacceptable behaviors to go unaddressed, you send the message that the behavior is okay.”

Bottom Line

When you lead by example, you use your behavior to influence the behavior and performance of team members. Your influence is a leadership superpower. And, like any superpower, you can use it for good or for evil. What’s your choice?

Image credit: Wally Bock

Change Too Late?

Wednesday, March 11th, 2020

https://www.flickr.com/photos/christopherdombres/20657778626/

As we saw yesterday, business is learning the hard way that walking their corporate responsibility talk is vital to their very survival.

They aren’t the only ones out of touch.

John C. Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said in a speech last month that “there is still time to avert this fate.” Moving inflation up and keeping it there could convince millennials, he said.

“In this case, it’s fortunate that the young are impressionable.”

“Fate” refers to the potential economic mayhem that could result from the high savings rate among Millennials looking to retire ASAP. “Impressionable?” I wonder how long it’s been since he actually knew any of the “young.”

Powerful men who have seen women as things to do with as they please are thinking twice in the wake of #metoo and Harvey Weinstein’s conviction. Hopefully that caution will trickle down to the rank and file bosses who still seem untouchable, although that’s unlikely.

Big Tech is no longer seen a solution to the world’s problems, but, in many cases, as their cause.

Startups are learning that public investors, whether knowledgeable or casual, are still hung up on mundane ideas like profit as opposed to their beloved EBITDA.

Founders, too, are rethinking their actions. Thanks to high profile cases, such as Travis Kalanick (Uber) and Adam Neumann (WeWork), and a much savvier workforce, visions and charisma are no longer enough.

One might look at all this and say, “the world is changing,” although a more realistic view could be summed up as “too little, too late.”

Image credit: CHRISTOPHER DOMBRES

Irrational Humans / Rational Animals

Wednesday, March 4th, 2020

https://www.flickr.com/photos/146269332@N03/48571681591/

Way back when I was in elementary school I remember a teacher saying that the difference between humans and other animals was that humans were rational.

Being an overly-observant kid I was a bit skeptical of that comment.

That skepticism grew as I got older and over the last 15+ years has grown at warp speed.

Paralleling the growth of my skepticism has been research into the intelligence and rational actions of a multitude of animals.

Only two months into 2020 and it seems the world’s gone nuts.

Not just the problems/panic/hype/cons being driven by Covid-19, but all kinds of crazy happenings around the world, including the US, with a crazy election year that seems even crazier than usual.

Very little ‘rational’ anywhere in the mix.

Animals, from insects to primates, are far more rational.

Any animal living in a group needs to make decisions as a group, too. Even when they don’t agree with their companions, animals rely on one another for protection or help finding food. So they have to find ways to reach consensus about what the group should do next, or where it should live. While they may not conduct continent-spanning electoral contests like this coming Super Tuesday, species ranging from primates all the way to insects have methods for finding agreement that are surprisingly democratic.

Yet more proof that my long-ago teacher got it wrong.

Image credit: Marco Verch/trendingtopics

Humans Not Ready for Primetime

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2020

https://www.flickr.com/photos/automobileitalia/30430513415/

It’s not just self-driving or any of the other “DDIY (don’t do it yourself) tech that isn’t ready for primetime.

It’s humans.

The National Transportation Safety Board said Tuesday that Tesla’s Autopilot driver assistance system was one of the probable causes of a fatal 2018 crash into a concrete barrier. In addition, the safety board said the driver was playing a mobile game while using Autopilot before the crash, and investigators also determined he was overly confident in Autopilot’s capabilities.

“Overly confident,” huh. Well, duh.

Who ever heard of a human who wasn’t, at the least, confident that the tech they spent their money, especially expensive tech, wouldn’t do what they expected.

“In this crash we saw an over-reliance on technology, we saw distraction, we saw a lack of policy prohibiting cell phone use while driving, and we saw infrastructure failures, which, when combined, led to this tragic loss,” NTSB chairman Robert Sumwalt said at the end of the hearing on Tuesday. “We urge Tesla to continue to work on improving their Autopilot technology and for NHTSA to fulfill its oversight responsibility to ensure that corrective action is taken where necessary. It’s time to stop enabling drivers in any partially automated vehicle to pretend that they have driverless cars.”

Even driverless cars tell drivers to stay alert, as do “Autopilot.”

Of course, doctors have been telling people to eat more veggies for decades and you know how well that’s worked.

Say the word “auto” to anyone and they will hear “you don’t have to do anything, X does it for you.”

Real pilots know better.

Image credit: Automobile Italia

Golden Oldies: Quotable Quotes: Bertrand Russell on Fear

Monday, February 24th, 2020

Poking through 14+ years of posts I find information that’s as useful now as when it was written.

Golden Oldies is a collection of the most relevant and timeless posts during that time.

I used to have a feature called Quotable Quotes and may bring it back. Bertrand Russell, 1872 – 1970,  (use the link if you aren’t familiar with him; it is a good use of your time) spoke on many subjects. Considering current societal upheaval and forces at work today, it seems like a good time to review his comments on fear. I find them extremely timely, probably even more so than when they were written.

Read other Golden Oldies here.

Most of us live with one kind of fear or another, although few of us admit it. Fear often masquerades as something else—envy, arrogance, failure, success—to name just a few. Bertrand Russell provides interesting commentary on fear in it’s many guises.

“Fear makes man unwise in the three great departments of human conduct: his dealings with nature, his dealings with other men, and his dealings with himself.” This explains much of what’s going on in the world today.

Fear not only paralyzes us it builds in our minds until it’s many times its original size; as Russell points out, “Until you have admitted your own fears to yourself, and have guarded yourself by a difficult effort of will against their myth-making power, you cannot hope to think truly about many matters of great importance . . .” I would add that ‘of great importance’ doesn’t necessarily mean global in scope or world-changing—unless you mean your own little corner of the world.

These days superstition is rampant and cruelty—physical, mental and spiritual—abounds in epic proportions at every level of human interaction. It’s worse now than ever before because technology has shrunk the world, given a louder voice to these evils and muted what wisdom is available. Fear is the main source of superstition, and one of the main sources of cruelty. To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom . . .

Envy is another form of fear; fear that someone has more, but as Russell points out there is always someone with more… “Envy consists in seeing things never in themselves, but only in their relations. If you desire glory, you may envy Napoleon, but Napoleon envied Caesar, Caesar envied Alexander, and Alexander, I daresay, envied Hercules, who never existed.”

Fear feeds off fear and can be overwhelming. Fear of technology is usually well masked, but it can be substantially diluted if you remember that technology is finite, while humans deal in the infinite. There will still be things that machines cannot do. They will not produce great art or great literature or great philosophy; they will not be able to discover the secret springs of happiness in the human heart; they will know nothing of love and friendship.”

Fear drives ideology, ideology preempts thought and not thinking kills or, as Russell said, “Many people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so.”

Russell didn’t name it, but he had a wonderful take on ideology, “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.”

Image credit: Wikipedia

Golden Oldies: Miki’s Rules To Live By 22

Monday, February 17th, 2020

Poking through 11+ years of posts I find information that’s as useful now as when it was written.

Golden Oldies is a collection of the most relevant and timeless posts during that time.

This Oldie doesn’t need commentary. It was valid when I wrote it in 2006, it’s even more valid in today’s world of social media and will still be valid at all times in the future.

Read other Golden Oldies here.

I frequently tell clients and readers to slow down; unwire themselves; learn to say no.

So my next rule may sound counterproductive, but it’s not.

Don’t live with the brakes on!

Taking off the brakes isn’t about going faster, it’s about taking time for the stuff that stops when you move too fast—such as creativity.

So take the brakes off your imagination; take time to dream; make more time for doing nothing and watch your world expand and sizzle.

Image credit: Paul Fris

Golden Oldies Twofer: MAP — Your Silver Bullet and Technology Alone Can’t Save the World

Monday, February 10th, 2020

Poking through 11+ years of posts I find information that’s as useful now as when it was written.

Golden Oldies is a collection of the most relevant and timeless posts during that time.

Way back in 2006 when I wrote “MAP—Your Silver Bullet” the world was a different place. Tech hadn’t yet sold it’s story that it would save the world and human bosses were still the key to performance and productivity.

Read other Golden Oldies here.

MAP—your silver bullet

I’ve got a secret to share. Most managers spend time, energy and money (their company’s and their own) in an effort to grow from manager to leader. They study examples and best practices, read books, attend seminars and classes, take advanced degrees, check out software, turn to the spiritual (if so inclined)—you name it and it’s been tried.

The dream is to find a silver bullet; the reality is various levels of incremental improvement; the payoff is enormous—both tangibly and intangibly.

Now for the secret. You already possess the closest thing to a silver bullet that exists and it’s right in your mind.

That’s right, it’s your MAP and, like a snowflake, it’s totally unique—yours, and yours alone. And the magic that turns the bullet from lead to silver is your ability to consciously choose to change your MAP through your own awareness.

How cool is that? The very thing that frees you to soar and it’s not only yours, but also within your control. Who can ask for anything more?

Never forget! You are the silver bullet!

Fast forward nine years and tech had sold business on the idea that it could do anything and fix everything. When I saw the article by Kentaro Toyama I thought it was time to revisit the subject.

Technology Alone Can’t Save the World

According to Kentaro Toyama, the W.K. Kellogg Associate Professor of Community Information at the University of Michigan School of Information and self-described “recovering technoholic,” technology isn’t the panacea it’s cracked up to be.

“Technology works best in organizations that are run well to begin with. (…) The technology industry itself has perpetuated the idea that technology will solve the world’s problems. (…) Everyone wants to believe the work they do is good for society. But a lot of people in the industry have drunk a little too much of their own marketing Kool-Aid.”

What is often ignored is that people are a necessary ingredient for the Kool-Aid to actually work.

The tech eco-system forgets a lesson driven home by Bill Gates in the 1995 book The Road Ahead.

“The first rule of any technology used in a business is that automation applied to an efficient operation will magnify the efficiency. The second is that automation applied to an inefficient operation will magnify the inefficiency.”

Aetna Insurance found this out when they first equipped their claims processors with their own terminals connected to the mainframe (before the advent of personal computers).

The effort was considered ground-breaking and was touted as a way to streamline the claims process.

It failed miserably, because the process itself wasn’t redesigned.

In short, claims had multiple steps with approval required at each. Because the process stayed the same, i.e., claims stalled in electronic form when someone in the approval process was on jury duty or out sick just as they did in the paper version.

Once people redesigned the process the desired efficiencies were reaped well beyond expectations.

Technology is a tool, not a silver bullet; the only real silver bullets are found within the human mind.

Ultimately the right thing is for us to find the optimal use of technology — not to eliminate it, but also not to assume that it can replace human skills.

Flickr image credit: Jason Rogers

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