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Archive for April, 2020

Time Off

Wednesday, April 8th, 2020

https://www.flickr.com/photos/marumeganechan/14256301182/

Hi All,

Nothing to do with the Coronavirus, but I decided to take some time off.

I’ve been writing Mapping Company Success since March 2, 2006, just a tad over 14 years.

Thats a long time and I need a break.

Take care, stay safe and I see you soon—probably.

Image credit: Taichiro Ueki

Covid-19

Monday, April 6th, 2020

https://www.flickr.com/photos/182229932@N07/49652428106/I received the following email from a longtime reader.

Hey Miki, I read a lot of conflicting information about Covid-19 and I was wondering if you or your contacts had anything to add, whether good or bad.

I don’t feel qualified to comment much, so I reached out to see what more knowledgeable people I know had to say.

One detailed response I thought worth sharing accurately reflects my gut reaction, which was based on nothing more than my growing cynicism.

His, on the other hand, are based on an in depth knowledge of current events, finance and the economy.

The author is a senior guy working on Wall Street. It’s anonymous because he would probably be fired, since his company is close to the  powers-that-be, and his opinion and comments are at variance with what they are saying.

I am significantly less optimistic than most people I speak with. However, I believe that the numbers we’re receiving are highly skewed by low testing numbers.

Despite having 3+ months to prepare, we’re caught completely unprepared. Our government has bungled the response in more ways than I can mention. I have 2 siblings in Miami who are health workers, one a surgeon who happens to be professor of surgery and chief surgeon. They are now dressing in plastic bags and going into surgery with bandanas covering their faces instead of masks. It seems to be the same in LA and SF.

The US has about 50 million people without access to healthcare, about 11 million of which are undocumented immigrants. These represent a hidden and significant risk factor that is largely ignored by media and most people in discussing the problem. The US is the only OECD country with this risk factor in such significant numbers. We also do not have a well-functioning primary health system. It means that we essentially do not know how disease is developing in the populace and are unable to devise strong strategies for addressing a pandemic like this (not to mention that the president fired the pandemic response team in 2018).

In China it took 3-4 months to stop the pandemic, and based on recent news past patients are being reinfected. It means that we will be out of this at earliest in another 2-3 months.

There is a significant risk for a 1918 Spanish Flu situation where there was a first wave that was somewhat virulent, but nowhere close to the second wave that came the following autumn that killed up to 6% of the world population. It lasted from January 1918 until December 1920, so this can last for more time than we’re expecting and be worse than we’re now seeing.

However, if we look at the numbers from Germany, which is the only nation that is attempting to test major portions of the population, the mortality rates are well below what we’re seeing elsewhere. This is very hopeful, especially when other numbers seem so bleak.

In China there are at least 5 different strains, and in Iceland they have identified up to 40. This means that it is mutating in different directions. The US response, which is more akin to that taking place in Kenya and Equador than most of the OECD, may have both a positive and negative consequence. It may create herd immunity, while also having a significantly higher mortality rate prior to this happening.

So, to stop my rambling, here are my recommendations:

    • be conservative in all ways with regard to hand washing, mask wearing, having outside vs. inside footwear, disinfecting doorknobs/light switches, etc.,
    • plan for longer time frames of sequestration than the authorities advocate,
    • avoid contact with health workers of all types, unless you suspect serious COVID symptoms,
    • stock food that lasts, especially frozen vegetables, etc., that give your immune system the ability to function at optimum capacity.

Beyond these immediate health issues, there is a probability for recession/depression, especially considering that the US is consumer driven economy (vs. export or manufacturing driven). Consumers are losing jobs wholesale, and while the Fed is printing money like never before, monetary policies will have limited success considering the record low interest rate. In addition, we still have not addressed the “toxic sludge” from the last recession.

Image credit: EpicTop10.com

Wise Words for April Fool’s Day 2020

Wednesday, April 1st, 2020

In honor of April Fool’s Day I thought I’d share a gem from Henry David Thoreau.

Any fool can make a rule, and any fool will mind it.

The goal, of course, is to avoid, or at least limit, the time you spend as either the lead fool or the follower fool.

Image credit: Wikipedia

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